Why childcare
A category that keeps growing, even when the economy doesn't.
Parents will cut almost anything before they cut reliable childcare. That's what makes this category so durable, and why the nanny agency model, specifically, is one of the most defensible small businesses you can build in 2026.
of children under 6 live in households where all parents work
Source: Center for American Progress
of children under 6 live in a licensed child care desert
Source: Center for American Progress
where care for two children at a center costs more than median rent
Source: Child Care Aware of America
Structural tailwinds
Six forces pushing this category up-and-to-the-right.
Not one of these is a fad. Each is a durable shift in how American families live and work, and each one puts a floor under demand for professional in-home care.
Dual-income is the default
In 1970, 44% of U.S. households had all parents working outside the home. Today it's over 60%, and among households with children under 18, it's higher still. This isn't a trend, it's the structure of the modern American family.
Daycare supply can't catch up
Since 2005, the U.S. has lost tens of thousands of licensed daycare seats while demand has risen. Regulatory caps, staff shortages, and thin margins mean new capacity is not coming back at the pace it left.
Remote and hybrid work reshape demand
Parents working from home need care that fits their calendar, not a rigid 8-to-5 center. Nannies, split shifts, and after-school coverage are the natural fit, and demand for that flexibility has stepped up permanently since 2020.
Care built around the child, not the facility
One caregiver, in your own home, on your family's schedule. The arrangement flexes with the child and the household, and nanny agencies are the professional path to it.
Recession-resistant demand
Childcare is one of the last things families cut. In every recession of the last 30 years, in-home care spending has been more stable than dining, travel, or discretionary retail. Parents will trade almost anything before they trade the person watching their kids.
Why the nanny model, specifically
Daycare is a building. A nanny agency is a network.
Both serve the same underlying demand. They are not, however, the same business.
Real estate
- Daycare center
- Commercial lease required
- Nanny agency
- Home-based
Regulatory load
- Daycare center
- Heavy state licensing
- Nanny agency
- Business licensing only
Capacity ceiling
- Daycare center
- Fixed by facility size
- Nanny agency
- Scales with roster
Revenue per family
- Daycare center
- Capped by tuition
- Nanny agency
- Fee tied to hours worked
Owner workload
- Daycare center
- Onsite operations daily
- Nanny agency
- Home office, ~60 hrs/wk
Defensibility
- Daycare center
- Location + reputation
- Nanny agency
- Roster + trust + brand
The nanny agency model doesn't require you to own square footage. It requires you to own trust between families and caregivers, at the neighborhood level. That's a much lighter asset to build, and a much harder one for a competitor to copy.
Why not just an app
Parents don't want a marketplace. They want an agency.
The last decade produced a wave of childcare marketplaces: sit-app models where families and caregivers find each other with minimal vetting. Adoption is real, but so is the fatigue: parents are tired of running background checks themselves, of the churn, of the liability, of not knowing who's really at their door.
A real agency filters. It interviews, verifies, meets people face to face, and stands behind the match. That's a service families will happily pay a premium for, because the alternative is researching strangers on a Sunday night while their partner asks what they're going to do about Monday.
Twinkle Toes is that filter. 22 locally-owned agencies, one brand, one standard, one point of contact per city. That's what wins in a category built on trust.
See how the business runs.
The opportunity page walks through the day-to-day model, the first-year roadmap, and what corporate handles for you.